Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 91.5% on 6 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 6 Jun 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 93% on 14 Jun 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 71 points down, to 22.5% on 15 Jun 2026. $4.95K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 7:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 6 Jun 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jun 2026 | 91.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 1.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| frozenriver | Yes | 500 |
| dropmeplease | Yes | 157.39 |
| Keen Scout EB71 | No | 85.44 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.ecdsa.fail/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-far-ahead-of-googles-quantum-benchmark-will-ecdsafail-get-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 30 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| J25525 | Yes | 25 |
| justlookingdontmindme | Yes | 20 |
| hesure | Yes | 20 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 17.84 |
| upstage-feline | No | 10.53 |
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