Analytics
Yes is at 97.5%, up 12 points from 85.5% when the market opened on 25 Aug 2026.
The high was 97.5% on 30 Sep 2026 and the low 85.5% on 25 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 96.5%; a month ago, 92%. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 90.5% on 26 Aug 2026.
$1.82K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.65K, with a 2.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 22 trades, $648.09 bought Yes and $43.73 bought No.
The largest Yes position is stormshadow with 355 shares; the largest No position is SchnackNicht with 159.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 5, 3:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 43 points · 25 Aug 2026 – 5 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 80%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2026 | 85.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 97.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| stormshadow | Yes | 355.23 |
| SchnackNicht | No | 158.5 |
| AJSV | No | 126.81 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross of "Dune: Part Three" and "Avengers: Doomsday" (both releasing December 18, 2026) is greater than the equivalent combined figure for "Barbenheimer" — "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" — of $244,477,464. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for each film's 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates), then added together. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If both "Dune: Part Three" and "Avengers: Doomsday" do not both release on the weekend of December 18 - December 20, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". If both films release on that weekend but no final data is available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen; if final data remains unavailable beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-dunesday-beat-barbenheimers-opening-weekend-record
| Perypery |
| No |
| 27.9 |
| DidoKazaNe | No | 21.72 |
| Mojito9 | No | 20.31 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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