Analytics
Resolved Yes on 6 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 58%. Yes opened at 50% on 5 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 307 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2024 to 6 Nov 2024, the highest close was 70.5% on 16 Jul 2024 and the lowest 40.5% on 6 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 40.5% on 6 Jan 2024. $1.53B traded over the market's life.
1,000 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 7, 3:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 307 points, 5 Jan 2024 – 6 Nov 2024, chart shows 30%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2024 | 50.0% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | 58.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 196.97M |
| I95153360 | No | 7.11M |
| V3546052 | No | 2.8M |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
| MarioRivera | No | 2.44M |
| 8173109406626402418616 | No | 2.44M |
| flash7 | No | 2.13M |
| digi926 | No | 1.96M |
| TTTTTTTT | No | 1.89M |
| rsftwer | No | 1.55M |
| Flat-Painting | No | 1.3M |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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