Analytics
Yes is at 28.5%, down 61 points from 89.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89.5% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 25% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 43%. Its largest one-day move was 50 points down, to 39.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
It is one of 21 markets under “Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?”.
$1.16 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.51K since listing. The order book holds $103.71, with a 33.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 223 trades, $1.99K bought Yes and $1.13K bought No.
The largest Yes position is youtube-trader with 95 shares; the largest No position is wisechinaman with 120. Ten wallets hold 71.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 89.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 28.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wisechinaman | No | 120 |
| scorned | No | 114.22 |
| imHoang | No | 100 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-october-31-2026
9 more markets, none above 3.4%.
| youtube-trader |
| Yes |
| 94.71 |
| smellyEllie | Yes | 93 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 84.09 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 63.53 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 60.25 |
| parker00 | Yes | 48.17 |
| zhukov26 | No | 34.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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