
Yes is at 30.5%, up 4.5 points from 26% when the market opened on 31 Jul 2026.
Across the 87 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33.5% on 4 Aug 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 29.5%; a month before, 23%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 28% on 25 Oct 2026.
Marco Rubio ranks second of the 21 outcomes in “Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?”. J.D. Vance leads at 54%; Donald Trump Jr. is at 5.1%.
$168.57 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.07K since listing. The order book holds $22.39K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 137 trades, $447.01 bought Yes and $793.73 bought No.
The largest Yes position is momentofsilence with 708 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 97.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Nov 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 31 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 26.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 30.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.36K |
| momentofsilence | Yes | 708.22 |
| balthazar | Yes | 700 |
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election. An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify. The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support. An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred. If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech). Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement. If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.” Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
9 more outcomes, none above 0.5%.
| Starry-Salary |
| Yes |
| 138.39 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 84.86 |
| Haradwaith | No | 80.84 |
| SiliconBets | Yes | 51.67 |
| FIFAWCCcc | No | 44 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 37.12 |
| aarboledaa | Yes | 20.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-endorse-first-in-the-2028-us-presidential-election-20260727202224755
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