Resolved No on 28 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 29 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 29 Aug 2026 to 28 Sep 2026, the highest close was 50% on 29 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 18 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 4.8% on 10 Sep 2026. $465.94 traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 28, 6:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 29 Aug 2026 – 28 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 796.29 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 150 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| a5533 | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve in favor of the player who finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR), as calculated by FanGraphs (fWAR). In the event that two or more players are tied for the highest fWAR, this market will resolve to the tied player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to finish with the highest fWAR, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, shortened, or no fWAR leader is determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mlb-2026-war-leader
| merod | Yes | 15 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| egrsafvafvaer | Yes | 5 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| romanew-10-0.5-sport | Yes | 4.1 |
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