Will Diddy flee the US before October?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$145.5K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 0.9% on 18 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 1.4% on 20 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Sep 2024. $145.52K traded over the market's life.

12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 2:30 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 18 Sep 2024 – 1 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 Sep 2024	0.9%
1 Oct 2024	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
WTBE	Yes	833.33
Alin.	Yes	790.4
Misha7	Yes	612.67
Shevchenko-618	Yes	12

10 of 12 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On September 16, P Diddy was arrested after being indicted by a grand jury (see https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/16/arts/music/sean-combs-diddy-indicted.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur). This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that P Diddy has left the United States for any length of time between September 17 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Diddy may have exited US airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than the United States for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Diddy exits US maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that P. Diddy fled the US, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.