Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 28, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$17.4K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 28, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 28 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 28 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2026 to 28 Feb 2026, the highest close was 42.5% on 28 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 28 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 2.9% on 29 Jan 2026. $17.37K traded over the market's life.

22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 12:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 28 Jan 2026 – 28 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Jan 2026	42.5%
28 Feb 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	10.85K
fomod	Yes	1.38K
ZERO0123	Yes	1.21K

10 of 22 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on February 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.