Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 165 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 22.4% on 10 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 22.4% on 10 Jan 2026. $287.51K traded over the market's life.
56 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 8:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 165 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 20.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Disguised-Hepatitis | Yes | 1.06K |
| norealtime | Yes | 1K |
| Olka | Yes | 858.74 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30
| acal | Yes | 800 |
| iminvisible | Yes | 637.73 |
| labistiiia | Yes | 308.23 |
| AleSanCH | Yes | 284.02 |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 283.53 |
| cc416 | Yes | 280 |
| ACara | Yes | 209.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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