Analytics
Resolved Yes on 18 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 78%. Yes opened at 47% on 26 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 78% on 28 Jan 2026 and the low 29.5% on 22 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 29.5% on 22 Dec 2025.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 19, 7:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 103 points · 26 Nov 2025 – 18 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | 47.0% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 78.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 22.54K |
| oliman2 | No | 700 |
| Avarice31 | No | 600 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 200 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/il-09-democratic-primary-winner
| 5atka | No | 199.01 |
| 53jDsH9 | No | 144 |
| Lavincey | No | 134.27 |
| yokes12 | No | 131 |
| fFzDBs6 | No | 110 |
| cowcat | No | 107 |
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