Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 45% on 3 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 93 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2025 to 4 Mar 2026, the highest close was 45% on 3 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 4 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 13% on 4 Dec 2025. $4.47K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 93 points, 3 Dec 2025 – 4 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2025 | 45.0% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 641.62 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 297.63 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 165 |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Arkansas. If no 2026 Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Arkansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arkansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner
| Yes |
| 152.09 |
| abc1231112441 | Yes | 40 |
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 15 |
| Azure Meteor 1EAD | No | 9.09 |
| Lunar Tide 00C3 | Yes | 7.5 |
| 26lkkdasdsa | Yes | 6.77 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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