Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 2.9% on 9 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 9 Aug 2026 to 12 Aug 2026, the highest close was 3% on 10 Aug 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 12 Aug 2026. $1.85K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 13, 7:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 9 Aug 2026 – 12 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2026 | 2.9% |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 1.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| strt | Yes | 104 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 94.39 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| balabalababalabala | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The House of the Dragon Season 3 finale is scheduled to air on HBO and HBO Max on August 9, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified character is depicted as having died during the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying death depiction must show the specified character depicted as dead on screen, or otherwise that character's death must clearly be stated to have occurred in the plot, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their in-plot death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death depiction is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death depiction will still qualify. Death depictions occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death depiction, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, prophecies, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead in-plot before the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale begins will not count toward this market's resolution. If a character's fate in-plot is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only death depictions confirmed by the end of the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale will qualify. Only events depicted in the official House of the Dragon Season 3 finale episode will count toward resolution. If the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale does not air by August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, books, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale is released.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-characters-will-die-in-the-house-of-the-dragon-season-3-finale-20260807203713262
| AMAM13 | Yes | 21 |
| gcjames | Yes | 20 |
| AstrumLiquidityII | Yes | 20 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 12 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
