Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?

Resolved

No, settled Sep 11, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$5.3K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 11, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 88%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 13 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2026 to 11 Sep 2026, the highest close was 21.5% on 25 Aug 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 13 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 20.5% on 14 Aug 2026. $5.26K traded over the market's life.

20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 13 Aug 2026 – 11 Sep 2026, chart shows 5%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Aug 2026	10.5%
11 Sep 2026	12.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.1K
utb	Yes	900
GrimoireWeiss	Yes	302.03
Whywix	Yes	251.12

10 of 20 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.