Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 25, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$1.7M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 25, 2024 UTC

Topic roomGovernment shutdown

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 25 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 19 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 19 Dec 2024 to 25 Dec 2024, the highest close was 100% on 25 Dec 2024 and the lowest 38.5% on 19 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 61 points up, to 99.5% on 20 Dec 2024. $1.66M traded over the market's life.

27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 26, 12:35 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 19 Dec 2024 – 25 Dec 2024

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
American-American	No	30.53K
WIlliam	No	9.97K
Qualle	No	9.33K
Iguess	No	8.33K

10 of 27 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

It was reported on Dec 18 that some lawmakers are not happy with the fact that the continuing resolution (CR) includes a pay bump (see https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/12/18/congress/congress-pay-raise-increase-00195089). This market will resolve to "Yes" if congress's pay raise is removed from the CR, i.e. language blocking a congressional pay raise is restored, by December 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on whether the language is re-added in the CR at any point, regardless of if the CR eventually passes or not. The primary resolution source will be the text of the CR, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.