Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 52% on 1 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 5 Jul 2026, the highest close was 52% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 5 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 1.7% on 3 Jul 2026. $6.78K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 6:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 5 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 52.0% |
| 5 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CreatorOfMyths | Yes | 2K |
| akko123 | Yes | 250 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| 2kparabellum | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Sonnet 5 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Sonnet 5" may qualify (e.g., claude-sonnet-5, claude-sonnet-5.0-thinking, claude-sonnet-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Opus, Haiku, or another non-Sonnet 5 variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing:
| lightsout912 | Yes | 50 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10.3 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| mtm6 | Yes | 0.1 |
| PPMT | Yes | 0.04 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 0.01 |
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