Analytics
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“Will Claude go down 8-10 times in September?” is a tech prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Will Claude go down on __ days in September?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 1, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 24, 11:24 AM UTC, Yes trades at 23.0¢, a 23.0% implied chance, $950.11 traded in the last 24 hours, $673.67 resting in the order book, a 4.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 30 daily price points from Aug 27, 2026 UTC to Sep 24, 2026 UTC (Yes between 12.0% and 42.5%); 32 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 91.6% of the loaded shares; 115 recent public fills from 52 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 30 points · 27 Aug 2026 – 24 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 26.0% |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 23.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.16K |
| whichtopick | Yes | 688.59 |
| RATHMA4 | No |
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-september
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 200 |
| ms1910 | Yes | 160 |
| ScootSnipper | Yes | 106.77 |
| Maximus374 | Yes | 105 |
| wizardorb | Yes | 100 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 94 |
| AJSV | Yes | 88.04 |
| Prize-Maybe | Yes | 53.35 |