Analytics
Resolved No on 19 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 32% on 31 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 31 Mar 2026 to 19 May 2026 (14 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32.5% on 2 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 18 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 32.5% on 2 Apr 2026. $4.75K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 20, 5:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 31 Mar 2026 – 19 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2026 | 32.0% |
| 19 May 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.46K |
| korda77 | Yes | 250 |
| 5-min | Yes | 200 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-may
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 82.83 |
| Mad-Judge | Yes | 82.42 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 61.81 |
| Crimson Kestrel EEA2 | Yes | 30 |
| Anon321321 | Yes | 30 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 23.86 |
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