Will Claude go down 0 times in March?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 14, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 14, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 14 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.7%. Yes opened at 3.3% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 14 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 5.9% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.6% on 11 Mar 2026.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 6:19 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 14 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
27 Feb 2026	3.3%
14 Mar 2026	1.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
yangguang0511	Yes	1.5K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.24K
Courageous-Commonsense	Yes	1K
Deafening-Possible	Yes	150

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).