Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 8 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 34.5% on 8 Aug 2025 and the low 0.4% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 16.5% on 9 Aug 2025. $52.06K traded over the market's life.
62 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 11:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 148 points, 8 Aug 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | 34.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Aplua | Yes | 1.3K |
| eNakeVets | Yes | 1.24K |
| Mild-Entrance | Yes | 897.77 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-by
| Yes |
| 593.45 |
| Abhi22922 | Yes | 400 |
| mikamu | Yes | 256.26 |
| jackji | Yes | 186.43 |
| SVOI | Yes | 177.99 |
| 19283746 | Yes | 111 |
| Godfathermkd | Yes | 105.26 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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