Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 93.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 3 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 153 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2025 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 93.5% on 1 Feb 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 16 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 80% on 16 Dec 2025. $86.68K traded over the market's life.
90 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 3, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 153 points, 3 Sep 2025 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2025 | 50.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 93.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.3K |
| TammyRamos6566 | No | 825 |
| lissartter | No | 563.53 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate wins the 2025 special election for Texas's 18th Congressional District to replace former Representative Sylvester Turner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a runoff, this market's resolution will be based on the runoff's outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/texas-house-special-election-winner
| JenniferWood4414 | No | 445.62 |
| fashionparty | No | 314.66 |
| Whole-Runaway | No | 208.33 |
| TENETENET | No | 200 |
| KARACAC | No | 196.23 |
| NicoleShaw4553 | No | 173 |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | No | 168.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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