Analytics
Resolved Yes on 19 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 91.5%. Yes opened at 69.5% on 11 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 11 Dec 2025 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 94% on 2 Jan 2026 and the lowest 69.5% on 11 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 83.5% on 12 Dec 2025. $41.59K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 11 Dec 2025 – 19 Jan 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Dec 2025 | 69.5% |
| 19 Jan 2026 | 91.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 23.09K |
| LukeGamma | No | 1.5K |
| Tangible-Embellishment | No | 640 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for some time in January, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025
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