Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 36.5% on 18 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 91 daily closes on record from 18 Jul 2026 to 19 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 36.5% on 18 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 15 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 20.5% on 19 Jul 2026. $1.87K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 19, 9:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 91 points, 18 Jul 2026 – 19 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2026 | 36.5% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.23K |
| ayrebyswbalad | Yes | 500 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 474.8 |
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q3-2026-20260716161116873
| Yes |
| 415.8 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 256.97 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 160.3 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 150 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 149.99 |
| Crimson Summit 6D33 | Yes | 100 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 99.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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