Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 2.6% on 23 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 73 daily closes on record from 23 Jan 2026 to 16 Apr 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14.7% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 26 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.3 points down, to 5.5% on 5 Mar 2026. $86.1K traded over the market's life.
77 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 6:49 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 73 points, 23 Jan 2026 – 16 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | 2.6% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | 1.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 30.5K |
| Unusual-Shoot | Yes | 4K |
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 2.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026
| Yes |
| 1K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 750 |
| haruk098 | Yes | 655 |
| Sparse-Pard | Yes | 641.05 |
| Amber Lynx 17E0 | Yes | 605.87 |
| norealtime | Yes | 500 |
| noid2 | Yes | 500 |
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