Analytics
Resolved No on 3 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 25 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 25 Apr 2025 to 3 May 2025, the highest close was 25.5% on 25 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 3 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 4% on 30 Apr 2025. $67.21K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 4, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 25 Apr 2025 – 3 May 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2025 | 25.5% |
| 3 May 2025 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lalaf | Yes | 7.8K |
| Petros | Yes | 60 |
| LandoLakes0813 | No | 6.55 |
| ggb12345 | No | 0.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People’s Republic of China publicly confirms that trade negotiations with the United States have begun by May 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official announcements will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims will not qualify. Statements must clearly indicate that negotiations have begun or are actively ongoing, not merely that China is open to talks, willing to negotiate, or discussing preconditions. The resolution source will be official information from the People’s Republic of China.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-china-confirm-trade-negotiations-have-begun-by-next-friday
| Karekken | No | 0.03 |
| bigboops | No | 0.02 |
| SuARas | No | 0.02 |
| Haradwaith | No | 0.02 |
| khatai | No | 0.02 |
| milize | No | 0.01 |
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