Analytics
Paper trading
Resolved Yes on 25 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 76.5% on 20 Feb 2025. Before it settled, the high was 99.6% on 25 Feb 2025 and the low 76% on 21 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 98% on 24 Feb 2025. $219.4K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 26, 8:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 20 Feb 2025 – 25 Feb 2025, chart shows 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2025 | 76.5% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TimeTraveler | No | 1.2K |
| bigyield | No | 274.67 |
| gzuz | No | 40 |
| Educator | No | 22.73 |
| Pomelo411Z | No | 15 |
| A1rdr0p | No | 15 |
| Chrissistar04 | Yes | 0.03 |
| neverfeesplease | Yes | 0.02 |
| redflaged | Yes | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to tale place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins more seats in the Bundestag (Germany's lower house) than the combined total of seats won by the SPD (Social Democratic Party, Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) and Alliance 90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) as a result of the next German parliamentary election. If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". The CDU/CSU must win more seats, ties will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed parties, not any coalition of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the final total number of seats won by each party, including any overhang mandates (Überhangmandate) and balancing mandates (Ausgleichsmandate), as reflected in the official results. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-cducsu-win-more-seats-than-spd-and-greens
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