Analytics
Resolved No on 6 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 29 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 25.5% on 29 Jan 2025 and the low 0.1% on 25 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 0.2% on 24 Feb 2025. $579.44K traded over the market's life.
101 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 98 points, 29 Jan 2025 – 6 May 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2025 | 25.5% |
| 6 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 298.6K |
| steiniGoesAllIn | Yes | 11.94K |
| Celle | Yes | 10.06K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”. Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-coalition-will-form-the-next-german-government
| Yes |
| 7.6K |
| Paulotelli | Yes | 6.38K |
| diego77 | Yes | 4.25K |
| Sleinjerino | Yes | 3.25K |
| Pixe1 | Yes | 2.47K |
| ZerbersterBobo | Yes | 2.45K |
| Richpi | Yes | 2.21K |
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