Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.4%. Yes opened at 37% on 12 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 12 Aug 2026 to 21 Sep 2026, the highest close was 37% on 12 Aug 2026 and the lowest 7.6% on 21 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 13% on 30 Aug 2026. $9.52K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 12 Aug 2026 – 21 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | 37.0% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 7.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.71K |
| balthazar | Yes | 990 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 174.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/berlin-state-elections-cdu-of-seats-20260805192827457
| Yes |
| 89.33 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 80 |
| Smooth-Harbor | Yes | 50 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Better-Browsing | Yes | 50 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 45 |
| a.weidel | Yes | 40.24 |
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