Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 72.5% on 17 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2025 to 4 Nov 2025, the highest close was 77.5% on 22 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 4 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 58% on 25 Sep 2025. $80.89K traded over the market's life.
78 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 5, 8:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 17 Sep 2025 – 4 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2025 | 72.5% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Pristine-Glue | Yes | 4.48K |
| PatoAMN | Yes | 3.14K |
| ObertoTarantino32 | Yes | 2.13K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Pathward Financial is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-19. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Pathward Financial's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.29. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pathward Financial reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.29 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Pathward Financial does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No." Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-cash-beat-earnings-estimate-2025-09-19-1pt29
| Yes |
| 1.26K |
| OU812TSK | Yes | 835.79 |
| 42c | Yes | 720 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 711.99 |
| Alex_ | Yes | 444 |
| mshcpx | Yes | 356.94 |
| pillusch | Yes | 332.72 |
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