Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 1.6% on 27 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 1.6% on 27 Jan 2026 and the low 0.1% on 1 Feb 2026. $13.35K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 6 points · 27 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2026 | 1.6% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| S888 | Yes | 500 |
| Romeo005 | Yes | 100 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 99.92 |
| Slight-Ambiguity | Yes | 52.99 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 50 |
| TuiZest | Yes | 50 |
| New-Obligation | Yes | 40 |
| Low-Guy | Yes | 33.33 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 29.97 |
| zxcursed121 | Yes | 22.5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Caroline Ellison officially launches a token by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Caroline Ellison, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-caroline-ellison-launch-a-coin-by-january-31
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