Will Canada’s February 2026 unemployment rate be 6.4%?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 13, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 13, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 13 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 35.5% on 10 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 10 Feb 2026 to 13 Mar 2026, the highest close was 41.5% on 6 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1% on 13 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 1% on 13 Mar 2026.

15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 14, 12:33 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 10 Feb 2026 – 13 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Feb 2026	35.5%
13 Mar 2026	1.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TENETENET	Yes	999.9
Indigo Signal 2966	No	417.25
bjprolo	Yes	100
cry.eth2	Yes	99.54

10 of 15 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. The next data release is scheduled for March 13, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.