Analytics
Yes is at 17%, down 22 points from 38.5% when the market opened on 30 Jan 2026.
The high was 90% on 25 Sep 2026 and the low 16% on 15 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 17%; a month ago, 89%. Its largest one-day move was 52 points down, to 37% on 30 Sep 2026.
$2.59K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $138.26, with a 24.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 87 trades, $348.26 bought Yes and $471.09 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Simon4s with 308 shares; the largest No position is Gennedy with 470. Ten wallets hold 89.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 6:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 236 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 38.5% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 17.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gennedy | No | 470.28 |
| Simon4s | Yes | 308.27 |
| Radiant-Anarchy | No | 125 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-canadas-drop-in-population-in-2026-be-the-largest-on-record
| Imaginative-Shoes |
| Yes |
| 99.99 |
| CadWinner | Yes | 79.22 |
| Starry-Accordance | No | 64.64 |
| AJSV | Yes | 57.13 |
| Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance | Yes | 50 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 40 |
| PPMT | Yes | 29.98 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
