Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 6% on 24 Oct 2023. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2023 to 1 Nov 2023, the highest close was 9.5% on 26 Oct 2023 and the lowest 0.9% on 1 Nov 2023. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 4% on 27 Oct 2023. $18.75K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 1, 2:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 24 Oct 2023 – 1 Nov 2023, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2023 | 6.0% |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hmm | Yes | 500 |
| pban1 | Yes | 104.17 |
| Ren_Immortal | Yes | 20 |
| elPolloLoco | Yes | 2.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Coinbase 1 minute candle for BTC-USD between 22 Oct '23 17:00 and 31 Oct '23 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price of 40,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the BTC-USD "High" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the "High" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value "H" at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase BTC-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-btc-hit-40000-by-halloween
| Levyathan | No | 2.13 |
| xinnu | No | 0.1 |
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