Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 3.5% on 8 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 73 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 16 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 20 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 47 points up, to 50% on 16 Aug 2026. $537.48 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 5:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 73 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 3.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 150 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 108.29 |
| ABC12345654321 | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bruno Fernandes officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-5-finish-2026
| Yes |
| 21 |
| politeste | Yes | 20 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
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