Analytics
Resolved No on 30 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 24 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 54 daily closes on record from 24 Mar 2026 to 30 May 2026 (14 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 24 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 24 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 7% on 1 May 2026. $3.3K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 30, 8:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 54 points, 24 Mar 2026 – 30 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Mar 2026 | 49.5% |
| 30 May 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 939.11 |
| fm14 | Yes | 100 |
| ma99 | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026
| Yes |
| 99.63 |
| littlebird | Yes | 97.73 |
| Jade Maven 34B8 | Yes | 60 |
| Gaile | Yes | 15 |
| Juliauss | Yes | 15 |
| Blaorra | Yes | 14 |
| Kronosssss | Yes | 13 |
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