Analytics
Trading ended on 17 May 2026 with Yes at 5.8%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 188 daily closes on record from 27 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 85% on 5 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.3% on 7 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.6%; a month before, 2%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 20.5% on 16 May 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “LA-05 Republican Primary Winner”.
$32.01K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Neon Horizon BD17 with 1.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 884. Ten wallets hold 75.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 28, 5:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 188 points, 27 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Mar 2026 | 44.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Neon Horizon BD17 | Yes | 1.7K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 883.51 |
| cowcat | No | 784 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/la-05-republican-primary-winner
| Alive-Gumshoe |
| Yes |
| 536.78 |
| predictiondiablo | No | 307.99 |
| Rapid Harbor F8C9 | Yes | 205.56 |
| cosmicsteaks | No | 204.16 |
| Rr55 | Yes | 200 |
| shiifoo | No | 194.17 |
| Spectrum | No | 186 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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