Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.2%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63.5% on 3 Apr 2026 and the lowest 2.8% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 16.5% on 26 Apr 2026. $8.21K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 1:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 50.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 2.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| guesswhatwhat | Yes | 241.09 |
| m123m | Yes | 31.41 |
| Rapid Voyager DDB4 | No | 20.43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms the NVIDIA (NVDA) in the listed month, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on the last day of the specified month in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on the first day of the specified month, 12:00 AM in the ET timezone (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The percentage change in NVIDIA (NVDA) will be calculated by comparing the official NVIDIA (NVDA) Close price for the last trading day of the specified month to the official NVIDIA (NVDA) Close price for the last trading day before the specified month, as reported by the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/NVDA/historical-prices). If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. Exactly equal performance of both assets will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution sources for this market are Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar, and the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices" (US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks, EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea, ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia).
| Yes |
| 11.94 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | Yes | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Quiet Tide 7848 | No | 1.85 |
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 0.6 |
| TomoX | No | 0.02 |
| HardPanda | Yes | 0.01 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-bitcoin-outperform-in-april
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