Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?

Resolved

80k, settled Jan 31, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$328.7K

Resolved

80k

Settled

Jan 31, 2026 UTC

Topic roomBitcoin Price

Where it stands

Resolved 80k on 31 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had 80k at 22%. Yes opened at 47% on 3 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2026 to 31 Jan 2026, the highest close was 78% on 31 Jan 2026 and the lowest 18% on 15 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 60.5% on 21 Jan 2026. $328.73K traded over the market's life.

214 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 12:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 3 Jan 2026 – 31 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Jan 2026	47.0%
31 Jan 2026	78.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
SHIVA	100k	4.41K
Matthieu86	100k	2.29K
Jacky603	100k	1.68K
Sjispongebob	100k	1.27K

10 of 214 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between January 2, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period. If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.