What is the “Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 50.0¢ and No at 50.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 50.0% for Yes and 50.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between November 18, 2025 at 1:30 PM ET and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period. If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 26 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 93.2% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 4, 10:45 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-80k-or-100k-first) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Final Odds

Market referencewill-bitcoin-hit-80k-or-100k-firstUpdated Jan 4, 2026 UTC

Closed

Scheduled close Jan 1, 2026 UTC

80k

50.0%

100k

50.0%

Observed 80k 50¢Observed 100k 50¢

Lifetime volume

$306.0K

Scheduled close

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 4, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed 80k

50.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

93%

Yes / No shares

903.49 / 610.09

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

296

Loaded notional

$41.12K

100k buy at 50.0%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jan 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

+15 pts

Range

35.5% - 73.0%

Nov 19, 12:00 AM UTC to Jan 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Reported market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Vilasenvento	100k	401.66	62.2%	$401.66
JediFarmer	80k	363.64	55.0%	$363.64	Dec 25, 7:10 PM UTC

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 50.0¢ and No at 50.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 50.0% for Yes and 50.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between November 18, 2025 at 1:30 PM ET and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period. If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

Vilasenvento

100k

401.66

62.2%

$401.66

JediFarmer

80k

363.64

55.0%

$363.64

Dec 25, 7:10 PM UTC

Trader	Current holding value
Vilasenvento	$200.83
JediFarmer	$181.82
yngjeezy	$160
frbow	$70.12
Marco83	$26.68
0xTritium	$17.24
Simplistic-Campanile	$14.99
AndrewJordan	$13.16
pawelnrg	$10.2
froglolz	$10
NorthPolar	$8.77
Sore-Snake	$7.81