Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 7 Mar 2024. Before it settled, across the 301 daily closes on record from 7 Mar 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 14% on 13 Mar 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2025. $9.42M traded over the market's life.
707 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 301 points, 7 Mar 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2024 | 12.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheLonerWhoWins | Yes | 123.25K |
| gurutrader | Yes | 52.92K |
| Anibal | Yes | 49.88K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of 250,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used. Note: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Binance (e.g. BTC only hit 100k on other exchanges but 250k on Binance), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-250k-in-2024
| cccv | Yes | 46.58K |
| TheChurch | Yes | 39.13K |
| NACIP | Yes | 38.93K |
| Babylonscorpion | Yes | 37.37K |
| locoloco | Yes | 36.74K |
| Black01 | Yes | 25K |
| Ptolemyii | Yes | 18.43K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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