Will Bitcoin ETFs attract more flows in 2025 than in 2024?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$30.8K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Topic roomBitcoin Price

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 24% on 21 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 21 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 24% on 21 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 4.5% on 22 Nov 2025. $30.8K traded over the market's life.

47 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 21 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
21 Nov 2025	24.0%
1 Jan 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Packed	Yes	10K
vittogmail	Yes	2.03K
8Eotx5qJmuUVd	Yes	900

10 of 47 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if net Bitcoin ETF flows in 2025 are greater than $33.6B (the total net flows recorded in 2024). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Net flows for 2025 will be calculated by subtracting the cumulative flow shown on January 1, 2025 from the cumulative flow shown on December 31, 2025. A daily cumulative flow data point on Farside will be considered finalized once the data point for the following day is published. The resolution source is Farside’s Bitcoin Spot ETF Total Cumulative Flow chart available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ This market resolves solely according to the cumulative flow values displayed on Farside, not according to other ETF flow sources. If Farside becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve using other credible and publicly verifiable sources.