Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93%. Yes opened at 25% on 14 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 25% on 14 Jan 2025 and the low 5.5% on 15 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 5.5% on 15 Jan 2025. $16.09K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 7:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 3 points · 14 Jan 2025 – 16 Jan 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2025 | 25.0% |
| 16 Jan 2025 | 7.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 1.32K |
| jimtimjimtim | Yes | 16.67 |
| arbitrageesus | No | 10.42 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
President Joe Biden’s farewell address is scheduled to take place on January 15, 2025, 8:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "malarkey" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "malarkey" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to foolish talk or nonsense. If the event is cancelled or delayed beyond January 19, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the video of the speech, however the official transcript will be used to settle cases of ambiguity.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-biden-say-during-farewell-address
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