Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 5.7% on 6 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 137 daily closes on record from 6 Sep 2024 to 20 Jan 2025, the highest close was 15.3% on 6 Nov 2024 and the lowest 1.7% on 7 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.9 points down, to 5.3% on 7 Nov 2024. $6.03M traded over the market's life.
249 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 21, 8:49 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 137 points, 6 Sep 2024 – 20 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Sep 2024 | 5.7% |
| 20 Jan 2025 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BarryandLarrytradiing | Yes | 124K |
| PMGPMG | Yes | 113.26K |
| Ptolemyii | Yes | 67.69K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by President Joseph Biden before the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-biden-pardon
| Yes |
| 33.45K |
| ketib2 | Yes | 25.52K |
| Mers | Yes | 17.9K |
| Quiet Raven F03A | Yes | 11.82K |
| Trumpeten | Yes | 7.9K |
| Ansonyoong | Yes | 4.63K |
| Bodecker | Yes | 3.81K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
