Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 27 points from 32.5% when the market opened on 12 Dec 2025.
Across the 299 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 87% on 24 Dec 2025 and the lowest 4.5% on 18 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5%; a month before, 8%. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 78.5% on 13 Dec 2025.
It is one of 5 markets under “What will Based prediction market revenue hit before 2027?”.
$6.53K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $270.01, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 111 trades, $881.73 bought Yes and $1.79K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Arid-Prey with 400 shares; the largest No position is Rapid Maven 2EF4 with 769. Ten wallets hold 83.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 299 points, 12 Dec 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2025 | 32.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Maven 2EF4 | No | 768.63 |
| Arid-Prey | Yes | 399.99 |
| XieGuangKun | No | 378.78 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point. This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-based-prediction-market-revenue-hit-before-2027
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 212.64 |
| zwtop | Yes | 132.65 |
| MaxEnt | No | 103.12 |
| orin40 | Yes | 87.86 |
| timeistmoney | Yes | 84.76 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 69.9 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 56.07 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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