Analytics
Yes is at 41%, down 40 points from 80.5% when the market opened on 11 Jun 2026.
Across the 134 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 80.5% on 11 Jun 2026 and the lowest 40.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 42.5%; a month before, 57.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 64.5% on 17 Jun 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Will Base launch a token by ___ ?”.
$5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $50.68K since listing. The order book holds $7.1K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.44K bought Yes and $8.05K bought No; the largest was a $1.12K buy of No at 44.2¢.
The largest Yes position is LemonBrothers with 3K shares; the largest No position is MaxEnt with 6.8K. Ten wallets hold 81.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 10:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 134 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 80.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 41.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MaxEnt | No | 6.8K |
| LemonBrothers | Yes | 3K |
| Decayer | No | 2.93K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-base-launch-a-token-in-2025-341
| MarketCat |
| Yes |
| 2.14K |
| elmcap2 | Yes | 1.39K |
| valera | Yes | 884.67 |
| 0x49F206 | Yes | 862.37 |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Yes | 681.55 |
| dima23000 | No | 537.1 |
| no012 | No | 502.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
