Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 4, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$714.8K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 4, 2024 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 4 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 13 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2024 to 4 Dec 2024, the highest close was 40.4% on 1 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 1.5% on 2 Dec 2024. $714.79K traded over the market's life.

91 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 5, 2:13 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 13 Nov 2024 – 4 Dec 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Nov 2024	5.5%
4 Dec 2024	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	228.91K
Crusherinho	Yes	22.94K
futozaur	Yes	21.78K

10 of 91 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Romania on December 1, 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if AUR (Alliance for the Union of Romanians, Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor) wins the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies (Romania's lower house) as a result of the next Romanian parliamentary election. If voting in the next Romanian parliamentary election does not occur by January 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by AUR, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).