Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 82% on 23 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 72 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 93.5% on 1 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 23 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 44% on 28 Oct 2025. $38.88K traded over the market's life.
50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 72 points, 23 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2025 | 82.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 1.05K |
| pearflip | Yes | 620.89 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 496 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Atlas, the web browser by OpenAI, has a native Windows desktop application publicly available for download in the U.S. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The application must be officially released by OpenAI or through official Atlas communication channels. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-atlas-windows-app-released-by
| Yes |
| 320.03 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 249 |
| Solar Horizon 0CBD | No | 190.87 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 154 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 145 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 90 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 85 |
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