Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 15 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
Across the 112 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73% on 10 Jul 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23%; a month before, 16.5%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 66% on 9 Jul 2026.
$65 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $31.35K since listing. The order book holds $984.08, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 486 trades, $3.65K bought Yes and $6.56K bought No; the largest was a $1.58K sell of Yes at 62.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Breakable-Bottomline with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is BridgeLake with 1.7K. Ten wallets hold 71.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 29.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BridgeLake | No | 1.69K |
| Breakable-Bottomline | Yes | 1.42K |
| iori4752 | No | 1.13K |
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple. This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-apple-purchase-memory-cxmt-chips-in-2026-20260630171913147
| Insecure-Statement |
| Yes |
| 1.08K |
| AlmostNoAwareness | No | 1.01K |
| 0XTrumpDKXuqB91R7913e | Yes | 971.33 |
| PavtheGreat | Yes | 899.99 |
| Eric018 | No | 791.95 |
| Neon Harbor B703 | No | 697 |
| Hospitable-Goose | No | 676.86 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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