Analytics
Yes is at 64.5%, up 29 points from 36% when the market opened on 15 Oct 2026.
Across the 13 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 80% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 36% on 15 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 58%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 53.5% on 16 Oct 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Greater China revenue be above __?”.
$590 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $89.96, with a 61.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 26 trades, $113 bought Yes and $117.3 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Neon Oracle A8A9 with 120 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 180.
Trading closes on 2 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 9:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 15 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | 36.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 64.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 180 |
| Neon Oracle A8A9 | Yes | 120 |
| x3rxesss | Yes | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple's Greater China revenue for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-apple-aapl-q4-greater-china-revenue-be-above-20261008120117000
| chessplayer |
| Yes |
| 20 |
| braindance | Yes | 20 |
| yetiyetiyeti | Yes | 20 |
| fsfsdfbot | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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