Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 43% on 1 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 5 Jul 2026, the highest close was 48% on 3 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 5 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 16.5% on 4 Jul 2026. $5.36K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 6:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 5 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 43.0% |
| 5 Jul 2026 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FredericM2 | Yes | 2K |
| FredericM | Yes | 2K |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| tiongbu | Yes | 21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the English live broadcast of the 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, scheduled for July 4, 2026, with coverage beginning at approximately 10:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the events of the entire official live broadcast, beginning from the start of the pre-show/early coverage and continuing uninterrupted through the conclusion of the men's competition, including the women's competition and any eat-off or tiebreaker, if applicable. All remarks made live at any point during the broadcast, including pre-contest, between-contest, and post-contest commentary, will be considered, up until the broadcast ends. If the contest is definitively cancelled, postponed, or otherwise does not air by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If this contest is interrupted, abbreviated, or only partially aired, this market will resolve according to what has occurred up to that point. The resolution source for this market is the official English live broadcast of the 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest on ESPN platforms and ABC. Only remarks made live during the official broadcast will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-said-during-the-2026-nathans-hot-dog-eating-competition-20260630153701047
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 4.99 |
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