Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 0.7% on 7 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 305 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2024 to 6 Nov 2024, the highest close was 1.5% on 9 Jan 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Oct 2024. $241.66M traded over the market's life.
767 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 7, 7:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 305 points, 7 Jan 2024 – 6 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2024 | 0.7% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 196.95M |
| Swift Comet 5107 | Yes | 15.26M |
| qrpenc | Yes | 13.83M |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any other Republican Politician other than Donald J. Trump, Nikki Haley, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Chris Christie wins. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market a Republican Politician is defined as an individual who has held elected office at either the state or federal level (i.e. including but not limited to US Senator, US Representative, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, State Senator, State Representative) and runs as a Republican for the 2024 US Presidential election. If their affiliation changes to Independent or a party other than Republican before election day, the individual will not be considered as a Republican Politician.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
| LaCuriosidad | Yes | 8.34M |
| Emerald Beacon F675 | Yes | 4.52M |
| Account4 | Yes | 4.26M |
| ProteinProsecco | Yes | 3.92M |
| yoloer2 | Yes | 3.7M |
| moonshotxyz | Yes | 3.09M |
| 0bets | Yes | 2.98M |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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